Overview
This study performed a probabilistic health risk assessment of heavy metal exposure from soil around the Shaoguan non-ferrous metal smelter in Guangdong Province, China. Sixty soil samples were collected across five microenvironment types (residential, agricultural, industrial, road, recreational) and analyzed for 16 metals including Pb, Cd, Hg, As, Cr, Mn, Ni, Sb, and Sn by standard Chinese EPA methods. Monte Carlo simulation was applied to model non-carcinogenic and carcinogenic risk distributions for children and adults via ingestion, dermal contact, and inhalation. Pb, Cd, and As were the principal contributors to excess carcinogenic risk, which exceeded acceptable levels (10^-6 to 10^-4) in agricultural and residential zones adjacent to the smelter.
Key numbers
60 soil samples across 5 microenvironment types. Pb: mean 312–1,847 mg/kg depending on zone (highest near smelter fence); Cd: mean 8.4–42.1 mg/kg; As: mean 45–218 mg/kg; Hg: mean 0.21–1.34 mg/kg; Cr: mean 58–94 mg/kg. All values mg/kg dry weight. Chinese Soil Environmental Quality Standard (Grade II) exceeded for Pb, Cd, and As in agricultural zones. Combined carcinogenic risk for children exceeded 10^-4 in high-exposure zones. Specific percentile distributions (P5, P50, P95) reported in source tables.
Methods (brief)
16 metals analyzed by standard GB methods (ICP-MS, AAS, AFS). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations). Microenvironment-based exposure factor differentiation is the methodological novelty. Applies Chinese GB 36600-2018 screening values as comparison reference.
Implications
Certification: Smelter-adjacent soil contamination directly relevant to agricultural ingredient sourcing in smelter-proximate regions of China; Pb and Cd values in agricultural zones are high enough to affect crop concentrations. Courses: Demonstrates site-specific probabilistic risk framework and microenvironment approach; useful for supply-chain risk assessment module. App: Soil data not directly consumed by app, but informs sourcing risk flags for Chinese ingredients from smelter regions.
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Update history
The five most recent substantive edits to this page, classified major (evidence or structure moved), correction (a published value or statement was wrong and has been fixed), or minor (narrative rewritten without changing the underlying evidence). Each description is derived from what the edit did to this page; the linked commit is the authoritative record, routine regeneration passes are excluded, and the full version history lives in git. When DOI minting comes online (see schema docs), each entry below will also link to a version-pinned DataCite DOI.
| Commit | Date | Change | Description |
|---|---|---|---|
| e317189 | 2026-08-11 | correction | 6 sections added; narrative text revised |