Comprehensive health risk analysis of heavy metal pollution using water quality indices and Monte Carlo simulation in R software

Overview

This study assessed heavy metal pollution and probabilistic health risk in drinking water from 80 groundwater samples collected from Shiraz, Iran. Concentrations of Cd, Pb, Hg, As, Cu, Zn, Cr, Fe, and Mn were determined. Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) was used to quantify carcinogenic and non-carcinogenic health risks for children and adults separately. Water quality indices (HPI, Nemerow pollution index) were calculated. The study found that As and Cr posed the highest carcinogenic risk to both age groups at the 95th percentile exposure scenario.

Key numbers

80 groundwater samples from Shiraz municipal drinking water sources. Cd: mean 0.0042 mg/L; Pb: mean 0.0038 mg/L; Hg: mean 0.0002 mg/L; As: mean 0.0085 mg/L; Cr: mean 0.0067 mg/L. All values below WHO guidelines for individual elements but combined risk indices exceeded acceptable thresholds under Monte Carlo simulation at 95th percentile. Total carcinogenic risk from As and Cr exceeded 10^-4 in children. Specific concentration distributions and percentiles reported in source tables.

Methods (brief)

ICP-OES and cold vapor AAS for Hg. Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) in R for probabilistic risk assessment. Ingestion, dermal contact, and inhalation exposure routes modeled. WHO and US EPA reference values used.

Implications

Certification: Groundwater quality context; relevant to drinking water standard comparisons. Courses: Exemplifies probabilistic Monte Carlo risk assessment methodology; useful for risk-assessment training modules. App: Not directly applicable (drinking water, not food ingredient matrix); As data relevant to irrigation water quality context.

Wiki pages updated on ingest

• Arsenic
• Lead
• who-drinking-water-guidelines

Update history

The five most recent substantive edits to this page, classified major (evidence or structure moved), correction (a published value or statement was wrong and has been fixed), or minor (narrative rewritten without changing the underlying evidence). Each description is derived from what the edit did to this page; the linked commit is the authoritative record, routine regeneration passes are excluded, and the full version history lives in git. When DOI minting comes online (see schema docs), each entry below will also link to a version-pinned DataCite DOI.